Brace For Impact-where Gas Prices May Go From Here
Gas prices are forecasted to decline in 2026 by approximately 6% from 2025 levels across the U.S., according to the latest Energy Information Administration outlook, though regional spikes could occur due to supply disruptions like those in the Strait of Hormuz.
Current Snapshot
The national average for regular gasoline hit $4.08 per gallon as of early April 2026, marking the first time in four years it exceeded $4/gallon, driven by crude oil surging above $100/barrel amid ongoing Persian Gulf tensions. By late April, prices climbed further to around $4.35 after a 27-cent weekly hike, reflecting refinery maintenance and the switch to costlier summer blends. In the Netherlands, prices reached 2.80 USD/Liter in March 2026, up from 2.56 USD/Liter the prior month.
- National U.S. average: $4.08-$4.35/gallon (April 2026).
- Crude benchmark (Brent): Peaked at $115/b in Q2 2026.
- Netherlands: 2.80 USD/Liter (March 2026 high).
- Year-over-year U.S. increase: $1.12/gallon higher than April 2025.
- Historical peak: $5/gallon in mid-2022.
Short-Term Forecast
Expect U.S. retail gasoline prices to peak near $4.30/gallon in April 2026 before easing, with a 20 cents/gallon drop projected for the year overall compared to 2025. Brent crude is anticipated to fall below $90/b by Q4 2026 and average $76/b in 2027 as production shut-ins abate and inventories grow. Diesel prices may hit $5.80/gallon in April before averaging $4.80/gallon annually.
| Quarter | Gasoline ($/gal) | Diesel ($/gal) | Brent Crude ($/b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 4.10 | 4.90 | 103 |
| Q2 2026 | 4.30 (peak) | 5.80 (peak) | 115 |
| Q3 2026 | 3.95 | 4.70 | 91 |
| Q4 2026 | 3.85 | 4.60 | 70-90 |
Key Drivers
Geopolitical tensions, including the Strait of Hormuz impasse since early 2026, have propelled crude oil prices upward, halting Persian Gulf exports and adding a persistent risk premium. Refinery outages in California and the seasonal shift to summer blends are exacerbating short-term increases nationwide. Global demand exceeded 105 million bbl/d in 2025 and is set to grow further in 2026, pressuring supplies.
"We forecast retail gasoline prices to peak at a monthly average of close to $4.30 per gallon in April and average more than $3.70/gal this year." - U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (May 2026).
- Review daily national averages via AAA or GasBuddy apps for real-time tracking.
- Monitor Brent crude futures on platforms like Trading Economics. 3. Check regional refinery status reports from the EIA weekly updates.
- Factor in seasonal blend switches around March-April and September.
- Observe geopolitical headlines on oil chokepoints like Hormuz or Suez.
Historical Context
Gasoline prices have trended downward since the $5/gallon peak in mid-2022, with 2024 and 2025 seeing comparable 20 cents/gallon annual declines. The 2026 uptick reverses this, echoing 2022's supply shocks, but EIA predicts a return to lower levels by 2027 as crude contributions to retail prices drop below 45%. In Europe, Dutch prices averaged 2.05 USD/Liter since 1995, with the 2026 high at 2.80 USD/Liter signaling broader trends.
Regional Breakdown
Every U.S. region faces a 2026 price decrease followed by 2027 increases, per EIA, with the West Coast hit hardest by refinery issues. Globally, forecasts diverge: Trading Economics sees Dutch gasoline at 3.84 USD/Liter by Q3 2026 end, rising to 5.12 by 2028. OPEC anticipates gasoline demand stabilizing at 27 million bbl/d by 2050 amid EV growth.
- West Coast: Highest volatility due to local outages.
- Midwest: Buffered by pipeline access, milder swings.
- Gulf Coast: Export hub, sensitive to global crude.
- Europe (NL): 36% quarterly rise projected.
Expert Insights
"Barring a sudden resolution to the crisis in the Persian Gulf, it looks like the national average will soon hit $4.50, and could threaten $5 as summer nears," warns Kiplinger analyst in early crisis coverage, a scenario partially realized in April 2026. EIA's May 6, 2026, update emphasizes crude's falling share in retail costs, projecting relief as oil prices normalize. For Dutch drivers in Amsterdam, expect alignment with EU trends toward 3.84 USD/Liter by year-end.
| Year | Avg Price ($/gal) | YoY Change | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2.60 | -5% | Stable supply |
| 2020 | 2.17 | -16% | COVID demand drop |
| 2021 | 3.01 | +39% | Recovery surge |
| 2022 | 3.95 | +31% | Ukraine war peak |
| 2023 | 3.52 | -11% | Decline begins |
| 2024 | 3.32 | -6% | Inventory build |
| 2025 | 3.40 | +2% | Mild rebound |
| 2026F | 3.20 | -6% | Hormuz resolution |
Consumer Strategies
To mitigate impacts, drivers can leverage apps for cheapest stations, carpool during peaks, or consider hybrids amid forecasts. Policy watchers note President Trump's 2025 energy independence push may accelerate domestic production, curbing import reliance. Long-term, global demand growth to 105+ million bbl/d underscores diversification needs.
- Track weekly EIA STEO releases every first Friday.
- Use AAA gas price tool for city-specific lows. 3. Budget 10-15% buffer for Q2 volatility.
- Explore fuel-efficient vehicles if commuting over 20k miles/year.
- Advocate for local refinery incentives via town halls.
Global Ripple Effects
While U.S. prices dip post-2026 peak, Europe's face sharper rises, with Dutch projections hitting 5.12 USD/Liter by 2028 due to import dependencies. OPEC's bullish demand view contrasts EIA's moderation, forecasting diesel/gasoline dominance through 2050. For Amsterdam residents, EU carbon taxes amplify local pumps beyond global crude trends.
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Expert answers to Brace For Impact Where Gas Prices May Go From Here queries
What causes sudden gas price spikes?
Sudden spikes often stem from supply disruptions like refinery outages, geopolitical events blocking chokepoints, or OPEC production cuts, as seen with the Hormuz closure pushing prices up 27 cents in one week this April.
Will prices drop by summer 2026?
Yes, post-April peak, prices should ease toward $3.85/gallon by Q4 as Brent falls below $90/b and inventories rebuild, though summer driving demand tempers the decline.
How do EVs impact gas prices?
Increased EV adoption reduces gasoline demand long-term, helping stabilize or lower prices; global forecasts show gasoline use plateauing despite population growth.
What's the 2027 outlook?
Prices rise 1% in 2027 after 2026's 6% drop, averaging lower than 2025 but with Brent at $76/b supporting affordability.
Should I buy gas now or wait?
With peaks in April-May 2026, waiting until Q3-Q4 offers savings of up to 45 cents/gallon nationally, but fill up if local prices spike unexpectedly.